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What’s Next for U.S. Trade Policy?

Published: Tuesday, November 24, 2020

President-elect Joe Biden is expected to take a more measured and multilateral approach to trade policy than President Trump, observers say, but is also unlikely to make significant short-term changes to the tariffs and other restrictions imposed by his predecessor.

Press reports, citing experts and analysts, indicate that a President Biden will have little political room to reduce or eliminate the Section 301 tariffs currently in place on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods imported from China. Biden has criticized Trump for the manner in which he imposed the tariffs, which are widely acknowledged to have burdened the U.S. businesses and consumers who ultimately pay them. However, he has also expressed a willingness to utilize tariffs when necessary, though he has pledged to consult with allies as part of that process. Considering that both Republicans and Democrats now appear to agree on the need for the U.S. to take a tougher line on trade with China, while Biden may not levy any new tariffs on China, at least in the near future, he also will likely maintain those already in place until a better solution to the problems the tariffs were designed to address becomes available.

Similarly, there is expected to be little to no change in the existing Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum products, industries that are typically sensitive to imports in the best of times and especially so now amid the pandemic-related economic uncertainty. However, there could be room to adjust or eliminate the Section 301 tariffs on imports from the European Union if a Biden administration opts to negotiate a resolution to the two sides’ long-running dispute over aircraft subsidies.

Biden is expected to focus primarily on domestic policy, particularly economic recovery and alleviating the pandemic, and so is unlikely to pursue any new trade agreements in the near term. Ongoing talks with the United Kingdom and Kenya will probably continue, but phase two agreements with China and Japan, as well as “mini-deals” with Brazil, India, and others, will likely be on hold for the foreseeable future. The U.S. is also unlikely to pursue membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, at least in the near term, and if it does so in the future it will be under revised terms.

On the other hand, a Biden administration is expected to be much more amenable to multilateral cooperation, including within international institutions such as the World Trade Organization. Biden has said he intends to enlist the help of major trading partners to resolve longstanding trade grievances with China. Toward that end, the White House is likely to be more proactive in advancing efforts to secure reforms at the WTO that will enable that body to more effectively address not only China but also a raft of other 21st century trade issues. The administration could also seek to increase engagement with others on the trade impacts of issues such as digital services taxes, worker rights, and climate change.

For more information on how the transition may affect your clients, please contact TLN member Charles Crowley at ccrowley@strtrade.com.

Charles L. Crowley
Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A.
Country:
New York, USA
Practice Area:
International Trade
Website:
www.strtrade.com
Phone Number:
212-549-0134
Email:
Fax:
N/A
CHARLES CROWLEY is a member of Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg, P.A., resident in the New York office. As a nationally-recognized authority on international trade and business law, Mr. Crowley has substantial experience leading and directing global trade and customs practices. He concentrates his practice on assisting multinational corporations with a wide variety of customs and international trade activities, including international supply chain security and management, intellectual property rights, import/export process management, antidumping and countervailing duty matters, unfair trade actions and anti-corruption compliance. In addition, Mr. Crowley provides counsel to clients on customs issues such as first sale and other valuation matters, duty refunds and tax/tariff reductions, foreign-trade zones and customs audits. He also advises clients on penalty matters and brings considerable insight to these issues as a former attorney with U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s Office of Regulations and Rulings and as a licensed U.S. Customs Broker in good standing since 1999.
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